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Track Tracts

Race Typing: The "C" Race Type
by Steve Fierro

(Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Steve Fierro's new book, The Four Quarters of Horse Investing, now available in the NetCapper Store.)

Race typing is a process that has us subjectively grading the amount of insight we feel we have in a race. It is a simple call. It is a judgement call. It is a call that can be tracked for accuracy down the road when it comes time to do some record keeping. Yes, with effective records you can actually go back and see if the level of insight you feel you have in a race is producing a profitable result.

After you have handicapped and selected your contenders it�s time to make a call. You will categorize the race as "A", "B" or "C"... The "A" race type is a race where my vision is 20/20, virtually crystal clear... [The "B" race type] is a race filled with "what ifs." We need glasses for this one. Our vision is now impaired from 20/40 to 20/60. When we have this kind of race, we are faced with a mixed bag of contenders

The "C" Race Type: The letter "C" is very appropriate for this type of race. The first words that come to mind for this type of race are chaos and clueless, among others. You get the idea. We are blind in this race and have no vision. This is the type of race where you can�t find a logical contender, let alone an eventual winner.

You will get at least one, maybe two of these, on every race card. Don�t fight it. Call it a "C" race, pick your best/worst contenders and move on. Remember, we are still in the First Quarter Contender Selection phase of our Four Quarters of Horse Investing. Don�t throw this type of race away! You may have passed this type of race before, but you will find by attaching value and with a logical money management strategy you can capitalize on this kind of race. I make some of my best scores in this type of race.

"If we are confused during the contender selection process, so is everyone else... However, we have a huge advantage since we are attaching value to this sorry group of runners."

Why? Toss this around a bit. If we are confused during the contender selection process, so is everyone else. I am talking about an ugly race. However, we have a huge advantage since we are attaching value to this sorry group of runners. The rest of the crowd (at least 98%) is going no further than contender selection. They certainly aren�t going to pass the race either. I know we are not in the attaching phase right now, but I feel an example is called for at this point. With this type of race I generally assign a betting line that looks something like this:

Contender A (someone has to be an A)  7/2
Contender B  7/2
Contender C  7/2
Contender D  6/1

I then demand a higher odds level than the listed betting line for a horse to qualify as a play. In an "A" or "B" race, one level above the betting line is an overlay. In a "C" race, I require three levels above the betting line before I play anyone in a race of this type.

My typical advice to customers in the analysis portion of my daily betting line sheets is to stick to those that are being sent to post at 5/1 or higher. I have two or three other combinations I use for this type of "C" race. You will find your favorites as well when the odds templates I present later become second nature.

The example I laid out really displays that by attaching value you now have some potential in a race where before you had none. When you add a solid Third Quarter money management strategy, you�ll have created a situation not many at the track are in a position to take advantage of. The toteboard becomes your ally, not your nemesis. You contenders will also be your allies, not the enemy. The betting line becomes your best friend. NC

Copyright �2002 by Steve Fierro.  All rights reserved.

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