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Track Tracts
Late Simulcast Money and
the Value Player
by Steve Fierro
(Editor's Note: This is
an excerpt from Steve Fierro's new book,
The Four Quarters of Horse Investing, now available in the
NetCapper Store.)
Circa 1999, something
interesting started happening with the odds on certain races. This
matter requires more than a few lines to explain. The time you spend
reading about this will be a tremendous eye-opener.
The gates open and the horse are off. You generally would be safe in
assuming the last flash would not alter your anticipated odds or
payoffs much. Not anymore! Why? Simulcast money. It is now
commonplace to watch a race and see a horse leave the gate at 3/1.
They get to the quarter pole, he's 5/2. They head into the stretch,
he drops to 2/1. They post the final payoff as $5.80 (9/5). This is
happening as this book is written. Currently, the simulcast money is
emptied into the pool at various intervals. These intervals occur
after the race is running. Rest assured all bets are placed before
the race goes off, but it takes time for the various locations to
"send" the money.
The average player hates this. I love it. I hope it never changes.
Here's why. When this started happening I, too, initially was
frustrated. However, I was frustrated for a far different reason
than the masses. My frustration was due to the fact that the 50%
overlay criterion I was using was hard to predict. You really didn't
know where your play was headed on the toteboard after the race
started...
Here's an example that says it all: You make a $20 wager on a 2/1
runner. This late drop occurs. You get 3/2 as closing odds. You
anticipated a $60 payoff for your $20, or a $6.00 mutuel. You only
received $50, a $5.00 mutuel. You lost $10 on the transaction due to
the late simulcast money. The groans are heard everywhere. Yes, I do
have this occasionally happen to me. I will have a 2/1 betting line
on a contender. The last odds I am privy to are 3/1. I am
anticipating an $8.00 mutuel. I get caught in this late money
phenomenon and the horse pays $6.00 (2/1). It happens, but I can do
nothing about it. However, there is a pot of gold at the end of this
rainbow.
I will continue to use $20 as our wagering example. In the last
example ($8 expected, $6 paid) I anticipated an $80 payoff for my
$20 wager. I received $60. I took it on the short side by $20. When
attaching value to your contenders and following through on the
tactics outlined as part of the Four Quarters of Horse Investing
process, here is what is happening at a more frequent rate. This
happens daily:
The runners are off. The 8/5 favorite drops to 1/1 (even money)
during the course of the race. The effect of this underlayed runner
is a windfall on my overlayed runner. I made a $20 wager on a 10/1
shot, whose expectation was a $22 mutuel or $220 payoff for our $10
wager. The late money on the underlay drove my runner up to 16/1. We
lit up the board at $34. I received $340 for my $20 wager. This is
$120 more than I expected and will pay for a whole lot of $20 "take
it in the shorts" wagers. I monitored this for 90 days. The result
was so lopsided I didn't need to continue. This late simulcast money
is a mini gold mine to the profit-conscious player.
NC
Copyright �2003 Steve
Fierro. All rights reserved.
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