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Track Tracts
Upside vs. Downside Risk
-- Part 2
by
Joe Takach
How would you rate
yourself when it comes to understanding �upside vs. downside� risk
or �value vs. non value� if you like those words better?
Do you think you could pass my 50-question test asking you to
identify specific situations as possessing either upside or downside
risk? Do you think you could score a perfect �100� on this test or
at least in the �90s�?
Why not give it a try?
Half of this test will be presented to you in this installment, with
the balance offered in Part 3. Just fill in the blank before each
question with either the word upside (risk) or downside (risk).
If you plan on taking this test, do yourself a favor. Print it out
and answer it on paper, or at least answer it on you computer in the
space provided. Just make sure that all your final answers are in
place and recorded before grading yourself.
Don�t read more into the questions than what is before you. There
are no �conditions� in these propositions other than those that are
clearly stated. The test merely wants your �opinion�.
You remember that word don�t you? That�s the word that �drives� our
great game.
This test has little to do with odds.
It was designed to see if one really knows the �basic� difference
between upside and downside risk regardless of odds. Any
consideration of odds for any specific situation will be spelled out
in that specific situation. Otherwise, forget odds as if they didn�t
exist.
One other thing before beginning to take the test. Any questions
asking whether a horse is upside or downside risk assumes he is
returning for his next race in a reasonable period of time with a
fully acceptable morning worktab in tow.
I�ll offer you my answers for all 50 situations in PART 4 of UPSIDE
VS. DOWNSIDE RISK.
Here goes!
1���..A capable journeyman jockey (not a superstar) comes to your
circuit and states he�s going to make it his �new home�. For the 2
months on his newly adopted circuit, would betting his mounts be
upside or downside risk?
2���.A horse wins a race and puts up a �huge� number for the class
in which he was just victorious. The number suggests he could take a
3-step jump in class and still win if he only repeated that number.
What�s more, he gained ground at each running call and won by 6
lengths. This afternoon, his trainer gives him only a 1-step jump up
in class instead of the 3 steps that his last number suggests would
be absolutely no problem. Is he upside or downside risk?
3���.A horse that you absolutely love is going off @ 2-5 and your
personal win percentage is 34%. Is this horse upside or downside
risk?
4���.You equally like 2 horses in the same race. One is going off @
7-5 and the other is going off at a generous 7-1. You read somewhere
from a noted money management guru that you should always bet the
horse with the longer odds. And if you do that, you�ll end up with
more money in the long run. Is following this advice upside or
downside risk?
5���.You see a winning horse pulled up within 150 yards of passing
the finish line instead of galloping out to the backside, turning,
and lightly cantering back to the winner�s circle. Today he takes a
single step up in class as is the norm with most winners. Is he
upside or downside risk?
6���.A horse runs a huge winning race against good company for that
level of competition and not only wins, but does so running against
the track bias. Today he takes a single step up in class. Is he
upside or downside risk?
7���.A horse wins convincingly from the 12 hole in a route and today
takes a single step up in class. Is he upside or downside risk?
8���.One of the talented journeyman jockeys on your circuit is in a
bad slump and hasn�t won a race in over 2 weeks. This afternoon he�s
riding a horse that you�re infatuated with. You decide to bet him
anyway. Was that wager upside or downside risk?
9���.You take a 15 minute look at the past performances of the day�s
first event which is a
6 horse field. The race seems unplayable and you move to the balance
of the day�s card. Upon completing your handicapping for that day�s
card, you find yourself with an extra half-hour of free time and
decide to re-handicap the 1st race that you initially deemed
�unplayable�. That 30 minutes of free time changes your mind about
the race and you come up with a selection. Is that selection upside
or downside risk?
10���You win the 8th race but are taken down by the state stewards
and are more than pissed off. You end up making a bet in the 9th
race even though you had no intentions of playing this race before
your takedown. Is betting the 9th race upside or downside risk?
11���When handicapping a turf race, you use �universal turf ratings�
such as Tomlinson�s or Helm�s to make your pedigree decisions vs. a
service that only offers �track-specific� ratings for the track that
you are actually playing. Does your breeding methodology offer you
upside or downside risk with �universal turf ratings�?
12���You bet at least 5 races a day. Overall, is this upside or
downside risk?
13���You bet a horse that gets steadied hard at the � pole in middle
of putting in his run. He manages to re-rally and puts in another
good run nearing the 1/8 pole only to get checked sharply when the
leader drifts out badly as your horse is about to blow by him. While
this is going on, another horse gets a dream run along the inside
and just beats the drifting out leader at the wire. You get placed
2nd thru a DQ because you finished 3rd, but there is no question in
anyone�s mind that your horse was clearly the best. This horse comes
back in 2 weeks and faces similar company. You bet him based solely
on his trouble 2 weeks ago. Is this upside or downside risk?
14���A horse gets a �dream trip� sitting behind a 2 horse speed duel
that falls apart at the
1/8 pole. He wins drawing off by 3 lengths in the final furlong and
puts up a big number. He returns within 3 weeks with 2 solid morning
drills in tow and takes a modest one step jump up in class. You bet
him based on the �number� he ran last out. Is this upside or
downside risk?
15���A talented runner makes his first start returning from a 6
month hiatus. This horse has fired fresh off the bench in the past
more than once. In fact, you�ve won with him off a layoff before.
He�s trained by a conditioner that is among the best on your circuit
at bringing back vacationing runners. He shows a 12-drill morning
worktab with only 1 flaw. His first 10 workouts are spaced every 6
or 7 days. However, the number of days in between his 10 and 11th
morning drill are not 6 or 7, but rather 15. His final 12th drill
comes 6 days after his 11th. You decide to bet him. Was that bet
upside or downside risk?
16���You find yourself in the middle of a �cold streak�, but you
continue to wager as if all were normal. Is this upside or downside
risk?
17���Every day before you leave for the track, you glance at your
local newspaper to see who the public handicappers are picking in
the races that you intend to bet. Is this upside or downside risk?
18���You find yourself in the middle of a �hot� streak and you can�t
seem to make a mistake at the mutuel windows. You double the size of
your wagers. Is this upside or downside risk?
19���Is wagering on small fields (5 or less horses) upside or
downside risk?
20���You intended to make 3 bets on today�s card and the first 2
lose with no apparent excuses. You complete your �battle plan� for
the day and bet your 3rd selection. Was that 3rd wager upside or
downside risk?
21���You like a horse in the 3rd race today. He looks acceptable in
the paddock and warms up well in the pre-race. You begin walking to
the mutuel windows and notice that he�s going off at 3-5. Since you
know that a steady diet of betting odds-on horses is hazardous to
your betting bankroll, you decide to pass him. However, you notice
that your 2nd choice is overlaid and going off @ 8-1 which is twice
his morning line. You decide to bet your 2nd choice. Was that wager
upside or downside risk?
22���It�s the last race of the day. You�ve had a very tough
afternoon with innumerable �tough beats� and more seconds than a
Church thrift shop. You haven�t cashed a ticket all day, but you
still have plenty of money in your pocket. You decide to try and
�get out� in the last race and recoup the day�s losses. Is betting
that last race upside or downside risk?
23���Last month you collected a nice 4 digit mutuel on a horse in a
20K claimer. In that win, he just held on at the wire after being
out by 4 lengths passing the 1/8 pole. That same horse shows up 5
weeks later with a decent worktab and takes a modest one step jump
up in class. You decide to bet him once again. Was that wager upside
or downside risk?
24���You like betting last out maiden winners to repeat, but only
when they meet two mandatory requirements. First, they must have
gained ground at every running call. Secondly, they had to have put
up a �number� when breaking their maiden that was good enough to
beat the class level that they are attempting this afternoon. Is
this upside or downside risk?
25���You like to bet last out beaten favorites. Is this upside or
downside risk?
PART 3----UPSIDE VS. DOWNSIDE RISK
NC
Copyright �2003 by
Joe Takach. All rights reserved.
Joe can be contacted through his website at
www.joe-takach.com.
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