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Track Tracts
Upside vs. Downside
Risk -- Part 3
by
Joe Takach
The test continues:
26���You�ve made a healthy bet in a Graded race after your horse
came into the paddock looking like a million bucks and warmed up
smartly under one of the top riders at your track. He completes his
warm-up with 3 minutes to post, turns around, and begins the long
walk to the starting gate. As he nears the gate with a minute to
post, he starts getting �hot� and a bit fractious. You have time to
cancel your wager. You decide to hold on to it. Was that decision
upside or downside risk?
27���The morning line in a race that you intend to bet shows your
selection going off at a generous 12-1. The night before when you
made your own morning line, you had this same horse @ 3-1. That
brings you to an inescapable conclusion. Either the linesmaker is
correct and you�re wrong or vice versa. You decide not to
re-handicap the race and you stick with your selection. Is that
upside or downside risk?
28���You plan on going to the track on Saturday, but get in late
Friday night after attending a great party and oversleep the next
morning. You get up 3 hours late and give the day�s racing card the
equivalent of a 2-minute drill in football. Was that �hurry up�
handicapping upside or downside risk?
29���You have no reservations about betting back foreign debut
winners in their 2nd stateside starts. Is that upside or downside
risk?
30���A horse gets claimed on your home circuit by a top claiming
trainer. In his first start for his new connections 45 days later,
he shows up at the same level at which he was claimed with a decent
morning worktab in tow. Would betting him today be upside or
downside risk?
31���You keep track of the running profiles of the track(s) that you
are handicapping at the moment so that you know exactly how the
surfaces are playing. Is this upside or downside risk?
32���Whenever you wager, you always bet the fastest horse in the
past performances. Is this upside or downside risk?
33���Tomorrow you plan on making one of the largest wagers of your
betting career. You handicapped this race and re-handicapped this
race. You came up with the same horse both times and you can�t wait
for the sun to rise the next day. Upon getting out of bed the next
morning, you decide to give the race one more hard look. Will this
wager be upside or downside risk?
34���You bet one of your selections even though he fails to canter
for at least 4 furlongs before loading into the starting gate. Is
this upside or downside risk?
35���You compute a daily track variant for the turf courses that you
play. Is this upside or downside risk?
36���A claiming trainer on your circuit reclaims a horse in his very
next start from the trainer that claimed it from him last out. From
a handicapping standpoint, was this reclaim upside or downside risk?
37���For no discernable reason, a top trainer runs a winning turf
horse over the dirt where the horse has never won before. You decide
to bet the horse. Was your decision to wager upside or downside
risk?
38���A successful front running sprinter is being stretched out this
afternoon around 2 turns for the first time in his career and is at
his proper class level. His distance pedigree says absolutely �no
problem�, but he faces rugged and proven 2-turn winners. Would
betting him today be upside or downside risk?
39���You incorporate �physicality handicapping� into your overall
handicapping methodology. Is this upside or downside risk?
40���You wagered on 1 or more of the recently completed Breeder�s
Cup Races. Was your wager(s) upside or downside risk?
41���You wagered on the Kentucky Derby. Was your wager upside or
downside risk?
42���You saw a jockey literally �stiff� a horse last out when sent
postward at 8-5. He comes back in his next race 3 weeks later at the
same class level with the same jockey and shows 2 morning drills.
You have no �knocks� on him whatsoever. However, his morning line of
5-2 balloons up to 8-1 with 3 minutes to post. You bet him anyway.
Was that wager upside or downside risk?
43���You incorporated �nuances� into your overall handicapping
methodology. Is this upside or downside risk?
44���You take your own trip notes rather than depending on comments
at the end of a horse�s running line in his past performances. Is
your trip note taking upside or downside risk considering the time
it takes away from your other handicapping duties?
45���You�re a dyed-in-the-wool �weekend warrior� and religiously
play every weekend, every holiday, and any other day that you can
escape from the �real world�. On Saturday, you get your clock
thoroughly cleaned and go 0 for 4 for the afternoon. You walk out of
the track pissed off and scratching your head, hop in your car for
the drive home, and manage to repeat the phrase �I shoulda� exactly
9,327 times before pulling into your driveway. You eat dinner, watch
some TV and call it a day. Bed turns out to be the �best bet� of the
long losing day. You get a solid night�s rest, get up feeling
refreshed and handicap Sunday�s card as usual with no deviations
because of yesterday�s humbling experience. You end up locating 3
playable races and end up betting 2 of the 3 as you would on any
other afternoon. Were those wagers upside or downside risk?
46���You keep impeccable records of every one of your wagers. Is
this upside or downside risk?
47���Over the years you�ve developed very strong prejudices against
certain jockeys and trainers. You been around long enough to know
that these disliked jockeys and trainers actually do occasionally
win races. What�s more, you accept the fact that once in a while
when they win, they might even beat you. Is your prejudiced thinking
upside or downside risk?
48���You always spend a lot more time handicapping better races that
on the surface seem more playable, rather than spending a like
amount of time on the cheapest races on the card. Is this extra
expenditure of time on the better races during your limited
handicapping period upside or downside risk?
49���You bet as many low end claiming races as you do high end
claiming or allowance races? Is this upside or downside risk?
50���You just spent a considerable amount of your precious time
taking this test to see if you have a basic understanding of the
difference between upside and downside risk. Was the time spent
upside or downside risk?
That concludes my 50-question test and challenge to you to see if
you�re a �top banana� when it comes to risk management.
In my next installment, you�ll get the answers with my full
explanations.
In the meantime, please print out the entire test and answer each
question with a pen. If you�d rather do it on your computer and feel
more comfortable doing so, that�s fully acceptable. Nobody is good
enough to keep all 50 answers in their heads. Just make sure your
answers are in place before you start reading any answers.
Stay tuned! NC
PART 4---UPSIDE vs. DOWNSIDE RISK: THE ANSWERS
Copyright �2003 by
Joe Takach. All rights reserved.
Joe can be contacted through his website at
www.joe-takach.com.
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