Upside vs. Downside
Risk - Part 9 (Answers Continued)
your horse has a past successful history of falling apart when he
sees the starting gate and still winning, you had better get your
sneakers in motion and cancel your wager at the nearest teller or
Being calm, cool and collected thru the paddock saddling, walking
ring, post parade and during 9 of the 10 minutes of the pre-race
warm-up and then suddenly getting �hot� or washy when nearing the
starting gate with a minute to go, is a big time no-no!
The runner is giving a very clear negative signal about this
upcoming race and his participation in same.
At best, he�s apprehensive and wasting a ton of energy needed for
the upcoming race when unexpectedly getting hot with a minute to
loading. At worst, he doesn�t want to run at all and is still
wasting a ton of needed energy.
Put another way, this is a lose-lose situation!
A caveat is in order.
Exhibiting very light kidney sweat with a minute to post is not
getting �hot or washy�. Hot or washy is getting wet all over to
include neck lather and more often than not, dripping kidney sweat.
Some horses get a whisper of kidney sweat when approaching the gate.
A whisper might be defined as a very faint half-moon of kidney sweat
that is barely visible. This is quite normal and actually a good
sign. The runner in question is most likely on his toes, can�t wait
to be loaded, and win or lose, will most likely explode from the
gate to get excellent early running position.
27---UPSIDE---Unless you are a relative newcomer to the best but
toughest game on this planet, sticking to your guns is positively
all �upside risk�.
Assuming that you are a journeyman handicapper with tenure to prove
it, you surely know that allowing a morning linemaker (track
program) or any public selector to influence any of your betting
decisions guarantees a sea of red ink at year�s end.
If you are guilty of this when gambling and consider yourself a good
handicapper, what you are �silently saying� is that a linemaker or
public selector knows more than you do!
You might want to re-read that sentence-----it could explain why you
are losing when you shouldn�t be.
If you don�t have your own strong opinion in any race that you
intend betting regardless of odds, you shouldn�t get involved in the
28---DOWNSIDE---If you didn�t answer this one as �downside risk�,
call me tonight---I have a mile of beachfront property in Malibu I
can let you have for 10 bucks an acre.
Regardless of methodology, good handicapping requires you to be
well-rested and alert, positively unhurried and finally, in a
comfortable environment that is free of unwanted noise and
Half-assed rush jobs just don�t cut it. Gambling is very serious
business to those wanting to be consistent winners and requires a
ton of work.
Handicapper�s taking shortcuts are losers----period!
29---DOWNSIDE---In California, it is called the �Eurobounce� when
any foreign-born runner fails to repeat after winning his stateside
You should have many reservations about these foreign debut winners
because very few repeat and when they do, they are usually odds-on
and from the top barns such as Frankel, Mandella, or McAnally.
Why are they so prone to �bounce�? Who knows and better yet, who
cares! I�m sure that if I sat here long enough, I could come up with
valid multiple reasons and so could you.
Obviously I can�t speak for the rest of the country, but betting
foreign debut winners to repeat on the major Southern California
circuit is a very quick highway to financial ruination.
30---DOWNSIDE---The question states that a horse is claimed by a
�top� claiming trainer, with the operative word being �top�. Top
claiming trainers simply don�t claim horses to run them back at the
same claiming level 45 days later. Think about it. Why would they
put the new owners thru that unnecessary expense. And again, we�re
talking about �top� claiming barns, not charlatan conditioners or
At best, if a top claiming trainer comes back at the same claiming
level regardless of the time factor, what he�s saying is that he has
little or no confidence in his new acquisition. At worst, he�s
telling all that he might have made a mistake when claiming this
horse or perhaps the horse in question injured himself in a morning
That looks like a lose-lose proposition if I�ve ever seen one!
Top claiming barns go up off a claim, not down!
NEXT: UPSIDE vs. DOWNSIDE RISK--PART 10 (ANSWERS CONTINUED)
Copyright �2004 by
Joe Takach. All rights reserved.
Joe can be contacted through his website at
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