Upside vs. Downside
Risk - Part 12 (Answers Continued)
a �gimme question� much like one of my old high school teachers
would throw on each of his tests to make sure that nobody in his
class got a �zero� in a 50 question test. (I once had a Statistics
101 professor in college who gave such hard tests that he gave
everybody 20 points for merely spelling their own names correctly
atop the test).
Much like question 40, it is far too risky to wager in a race where
you don�t know enough about every participant. You might know a lot
about one of your local runners entered in the Kentucky Derby to
include his likes, dislikes and idiosyncrasies, but unless you know
an equal amount about the balance of his respective field, you�re
begging to get the worst of it in the long run!
42---UPSIDE---The reason he was stiffed @ 8-5 was most likely
because the odds were too low.
What�s more, only those who closely watched the race and clearly saw
the �non-ride� or outright �stiff� would know that the horse was not
allowed to run freely or was perhaps kept so wide that his ground
loss assured defeat.
If the horse came from a known betting stable, today�s generous
overlay of 8-1 from a morning line of 5-2, reflects the lack of
confidence of the betting public and not necessarily the betting
Should this 8-1 shot look solid in the paddock and in the pre-race
warm-up, you might soon be cashing a very healthy $18.00 mutuel!
43---UPSIDE---Nuance handicapping is nothing more than recognizing
subtle signs emanating from a specific horse�s connections. These
�connections� include the trainer, owner, groom, jockey and jockey
agent. If you study these 5 groups of people long enough, you�ll
begin to notice certain things that they do and do not do when
winning or losing.
It matters not if you are on track or wagering from a satellite
outlet. While nuance handicapping is most easily and most
effectively accomplished on track, even the beamed in satellite
shows offer many chances to view various nuances that can translate
into winning wagers or saved bad bets.
I�ve extensively covered nuance handicapping in recent past writings
and strongly urge you to brush up on this visual art. And if you
haven�t yet incorporated nuances into your overall handicapping
methodology, you are missing the boat.
You can easily raise your win percentage by up to 5 percentage
points by merely paying attention to exactly what the connections
are doing in the paddock. In other words, if your current win
percentage is 28%, merely master the finer points of �Nuance
Handicapping� and you can raise your win percentage to 33%.
It isn�t, but it encompasses more work on your part as does any
other facet of our great game.
If you make your own speed and pace figures, that�s work! If you
take trip notes, that�s work. If you are a pedigree enthusiast,
that�s work! If you incorporate nuances into your game, that too is
work! I could go on and on, but I�m sure you get the drift.
But here is the kicker. You�ll find that the harder you work, the
�luckier� you�ll get!
44---UPSIDE---Any time that you incorporate �proprietary
information� into your handicapping methodology that is generated by
yourself or by a trusted resource, your game has to improve.
Sure, we all have to depend to some degree on others to generate a
portion of our betting information. That information is available to
all players and that�s never going to change. For example, all of us
somehow have to use the past performances.
But when it comes to the �optional� generation of proprietary
information that is not used by the entire betting public, there�s
no observation like personal observation----period!
45---UPSIDE---One of the very first things to remember as does every
professional handicapper, is that you are going to have many more
losing days than winning ones!
Anyone attempting to tell you otherwise is full of crap and you�d be
well advised to put as much distance between yourself and that
�snake oil salesman� as possible!
Handicapping tenure tells us that �days from hell� do occur thru no
fault of our own.
Some days we can�t pick our nose, let alone a winning horse.
But like professional handicappers, seasoned weekend warriors accept
the fact that some days they just ain�t in their �zone� regardless
of how much time they put into a specific card or a specific race.
And when they are out of their �zone�, they know that they couldn�t
cash a ticket betting a �walkover!
Winning or losing on any given afternoon should have absolutely no
bearing whatsoever on your play the following day.
So if you got crucified yesterday thru no fault of your own, forget
it, change nothing, and continue your normal play the very next time
that you wager.
Those that begin zig-zagging after a losing day only guarantee
themselves of one thing-------another losing day!
NEXT: UPSIDE vs. DOWNSIDE RISK--PART 13 (ANSWERS CONTINUED)
Copyright �2004 by
Joe Takach. All rights reserved.
Joe can be contacted through his website at
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